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The government may have been aware of the possible consequences in hasty cigarette tax hikes. It decided tax hikes were necessary to meet its budget deficit target. “As per the trends of past years, there is usually a surplus to offset the deficit from the first half, in turn keeping the deficit within the target,” said Lee Heng Guie, executive director of Socio-Economic Research Centre. Malaysia achieved its budget deficit target of around 3% despite billion-dollar losses in oil revenue. Together with cost-cutting measures, sin tax made up for any shortfalls in revenue. The cigarette industry holds the second place in terms of total excise collection, which contributes significantly to indirect tax ( 22.9% of the 2017 Federal Governmental budget). Additionally, the government has failed to control its illegal cigarette trade. The responsibility of clamping down on illicit cigarette trade falls on the shoulders of Royal Malaysian Customs Department (RMC). RMC failed to meet its aim of cutting illegal cigarette consumption to 25% by 2015 . This year, Subromaniam said , “The department aims to reduce the number of contraband cigarettes in the domestic market by 50 per cent in two years, but we are confident we can do better.” This confidence came with a call for harsher policy changes. Instead of fines up to 20 times the value of the contraband cigarettes or a maximum of three years jail term or both , the Customs Department has proposed a change to Section 135 (1) (d) of the Customs Act 1967.

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Home » Recent CSD Articles » Categories » Today's News » Wells Fargo Anticipates Cigarette Price Increase Wells Fargo Anticipates Cigarette Price Increase Could the next cigarette price increase appear this September? Convenience store retailers should expect the next cigarette price increase to arrive sooner than the normal November cycle, according to a report by Wells Fargo Securities LLC. Wells Fargo conducted a survey of its tobacco retailer and wholesaler contacts representing approximately 60,000 U.S. convenience stores to gauge expectations for the next round of cigarette pricing increases. Bonnie Herzog, managing director – equity research, beverage, household & personal care, tobacco & c-stores for Wells Fargo noted, “According to our contacts, the next cigarette list price increase is expected to be led by PM USA during the week of Sept 18 at $0.08/pack (+2-3%). We agree as we don’t expect manufacturers to wait till the normal November cycle to take a price increase, especially given the severity of volume declines in Q2,” which were related to the outsized impact of California’s $2-per pack increase in excise tax. “As has been the case in past tax cycles, we expect the industry to further mitigate California tax-driven volume declines with list price increases, partially offset by stronger promo efforts. Longer term, we see further downside to combustible cigarette volumes if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration succeeds with its new nicotine mandate. However, we believe this could be mitigated by smokers potentially smoking more in an effort to get the nicotine levels they require—an ‘unintended consequence’—and increased conversion to reduced-risk products,” she added.

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