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Not so, tobacco debt, whose cash flows can be modeled assuming varying degrees of cigarette consumption declines, Barton said. Under a 1998 national settlement, the major tobacco companies agreed to make annual payments to the states in perpetuity to resolve their liability for health-care costs attributed to smoking. Some states and cities borrowed against the payments, which are based on cigarette shipments. Altria Group Inc. , estimated that domestic cigarette industry shipment volume decreased by about 3.5 percent in the first half of 2017. Moody’s Investors Service projects 80 percent of the securities won’t make scheduled payments based on historical declines of 3 percent to 4 percent in U.S. smoking. A U.S. Food and Drug Administration proposal in July to cut the amount of nicotine in cigarettes to non-addictive levels cut tobacco bond returns 0.4 percentage point in the third-quarter, a potential buying opportunity, Barton said. Tobacco companies are expected to vigorously oppose the proposal. “Near-term, we don’t see a ban of nicotine in cigarettes," Barton said.
5 submitted a Modified Risk Tobacco Product (MRTP) application for its electronically heated tobacco product with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) Center for Tobacco Products. This is consistent with the company’s stated goal of submitting its MRTP application in 2016. PMI anticipates the FDA taking a minimum of 60 days to complete an administrative review to determine whether to accept the application for substantive review. Philip Morris International Inc. (PMI) is the world’s leading international tobacco company, with six of the world's top 15 international brands and products sold in more than 180 markets. In addition to the manufacture and sale of cigarettes, including Marlboro, the number one global cigarette brand, and other tobacco products, PMI is engaged in the development and commercialization of Reduced-Risk Products (“RRPs”). RRPs is the term PMI uses to refer to products with the potential to reduce individual risk and population harm in comparison to smoking cigarettes. Through multidisciplinary capabilities in product development, state-of-the-art facilities, and industry-leading scientific substantiation, PMI aims to provide an RRP portfolio that meets a broad spectrum of adult smoker preferences and rigorous regulatory requirements.